[:nh :ph on :ra 207 :break on]
[_ ,]
DISCUSSION...

Michael has weaken to a tropical storm this morning as the system

moves into South Carolina. Minimum central pressure was 979 MB.. 

The pressure gradient from Michael continues to wane over the 

eastern gulf waters as the system moves off to the northeast and 

this overall pattern will continue today.



Temperatures currently are in the lower 80s as dew points have 

slid back into the upper 70s. Winds are southerly around 10 knots.

A few showers and thunderstorms are in the coastal waters mainly 

west and northwest of Key West lifting to the northeast around a

zone of confluence that is pushing northeast.



For today partly to mostly cloudy skies as temperatures return 

back into the mid to upper 80s. Scattered showers and isolated 

thunderstorms will continue in the coastal waters and the keys. 

A cool front moving through the panhandle is expected into central

Florida around midnight tonight and into south Florida tomorrow 

evening before stalling just north of the Keys. This latest cool 

front will bump up chances for showers slightly on Saturday 

tapering back on Sunday as the boundary lifts back into central 

Florida before washing out.



.MARINE...

Northwest swells to continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

today through Friday. Ridging will build across the southern gulf

Saturday afternoon before high pressure becomes centered over the

Florida peninsula Sunday and Monday. A tropical wave will move 

into the western Caribbean. Otherwise... freshening east to 

southeast breezes are expected Sunday night and Monday.



&&



.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals 

through the forecast period. The early portion of the forecast, 

through 18z or so, looks to remain dry with no vicinity showers or 

thunderstorms included in the TAF. Southerly winds near 10 knots 

will veer southwesterly and lessen as a weakening front approaches 

late in the period. Convective coverage looks to increase as the 

front approaches, with VCSH introduced after 18z.



&&



.CLIMATE...

On this date in 1846, a major Hurricane struck the Florida Keys. At 

Havana, a minimum pressure of 27.06" was recorded. Key West received 

a major storm surge, with most of the island submerged under several 

feet of water. About 50 people were killed in Key West and only a 

handful of the islands 600 buildings escaped damage or destruction.